tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dayton → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 16:10 DAY → 16:44 ORD
    AA 6451 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 34m · 46% on time, 7.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:48 ORD → 21:59 PHL
    AA 2443 · American · 2h 18m · 59% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 79 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 04m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (7.1% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 56mDAY 16:10 to PHL 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.