tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Rosa → Portland via Phoenix: arrives on time 62%

  1. 16:12 STS → 18:23 PHX
    AA 6459 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 11m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 02m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 PHX → 23:08 PDX
    AA 561 · American · 2h 43m · 68% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 77 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 02m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 56mSTS 16:12 to PDX 23:08, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.