tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 57%

  1. 06:45 DTW → 07:30 ORD
    AA 6465 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 45m · 80% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:18 ORD → 11:38 RDU
    AA 4354 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 18m · 90% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip4h 51mDTW 06:45 to RDU 11:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.