tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → Nashville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 59%

  1. 07:30 RIC → 08:44 PHL
    AA 5830 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 14m · 77% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:35 PHL → 10:51 BNA
    AA 3221 · American · 2h 16m · 86% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Richmond). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip4h 21mRIC 07:30 to BNA 10:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.