tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → Denver via Philadelphia: arrives on time 60%

  1. 07:30 RIC → 08:44 PHL
    AA 5830 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 14m · 77% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:35 PHL → 11:56 DEN
    AA 3312 · American · 4h 21m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Richmond). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 26mRIC 07:30 to DEN 11:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.