tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Knoxville → Chicago via Charlotte: arrives on time 30%

  1. 16:07 TYS → 17:33 CLT
    AA 5831 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 26m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:26 CLT → 19:51 ORD
    AA 2488 · American · 2h 25m · 47% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Knoxville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip4h 44mTYS 16:07 to ORD 19:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.