tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 38%

  1. 14:54 MHT → 16:35 PHL
    AA 5840 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 41m · 74% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Manchester). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 32mMHT 14:54 to ORD 19:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.