tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Dulles via Philadelphia: arrives on time 64%

  1. 14:54 MHT → 16:35 PHL
    AA 5840 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 41m · 74% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 10m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 19:45 PHL → 21:10 IAD
    UA 4587 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 25m · 84% on time, 11.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 100 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 10m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (11.4% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip6h 16mMHT 14:54 to IAD 21:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.