tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Harrisburg → Detroit via Philadelphia: arrives on time 70%

  1. 08:15 MDT → 09:15 PHL
    AA 5841 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 00m · 82% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:30 PHL → 12:28 DTW
    AA 5530 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 58m · 83% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip4h 13mMDT 08:15 to DTW 12:28, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.