tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Myrtle Beach → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 36%

  1. 18:45 MYR → 20:38 PHL
    AA 5849 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 49m · 77% on time, 9.9% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:32 PHL → 23:30 ORD
    AA 3042 · American · 2h 58m · 63% on time, 13.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (9.9% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (13.9% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 45mMYR 18:45 to ORD 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.