tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Orlando via Philadelphia: arrives on time 39%

  1. 15:31 ORF → 16:50 PHL
    AA 5859 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 19m · 62% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:05 PHL → 20:54 MCO
    AA 2531 · American · 2h 49m · 59% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 23mORF 15:31 to MCO 20:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.