tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → Phoenix via Philadelphia: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:03 CLE → 16:43 PHL
    AA 5861 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 40m · 64% on time, 4.1% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 PHL → 19:37 PHX
    AA 1984 · American · 5h 07m · 64% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Cleveland). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (4.1% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 34mCLE 15:03 to PHX 19:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.