tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Cleveland → Nashville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 36%

  1. 15:03 CLE → 16:43 PHL
    AA 5861 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 40m · 64% on time, 4.1% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 PHL → 18:55 BNA
    AA 5580 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 19m · 70% on time, 11.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Cleveland). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (4.1% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (11.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 52mCLE 15:03 to BNA 18:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.