tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 81%

  1. 05:20 BUF → 06:46 PHL
    AA 5873 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 26m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:35 PHL → 12:09 ORD
    AA 1041 · American · 2h 34m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 184 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 49m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip7h 49mBUF 05:20 to ORD 12:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.