tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 75%

  1. 05:20 BUF → 06:46 PHL
    AA 5873 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 26m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:39 PHL → 09:08 ORD
    AA 3074 · American · 2h 28m · 82% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 47mBUF 05:20 to ORD 09:08, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.