tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Tampa via Philadelphia: arrives on time 71%

  1. 05:20 BUF → 06:46 PHL
    AA 5873 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 26m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 49m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 08:35 PHL → 11:26 TPA
    F9 4807 · Frontier · 2h 51m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 49m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 06mBUF 05:20 to TPA 11:26, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.