tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 37%

  1. 15:13 ROC → 16:42 PHL
    AA 5907 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 29m · 74% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:26 ORD
    AA 1012 · American · 2h 46m · 58% on time, 8.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Rochester). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (8.5% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 13mROC 15:13 to ORD 19:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.