tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Boston via Philadelphia: arrives on time 34%

  1. 15:13 ROC → 16:42 PHL
    AA 5907 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 29m · 74% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 PHL → 19:05 BOS
    AA 2960 · American · 1h 35m · 57% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip3h 52mROC 15:13 to BOS 19:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.