tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Atlanta via Philadelphia: arrives on time 44%

  1. 15:13 ROC → 16:42 PHL
    AA 5907 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 29m · 74% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 PHL → 19:55 ATL
    AA 3041 · American · 2h 20m · 69% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 42mROC 15:13 to ATL 19:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.