tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Detroit via Philadelphia: arrives on time 81%

  1. 06:05 ROC → 07:32 PHL
    AA 5930 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 27m · 91% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 14m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:46 PHL → 11:31 DTW
    DL 2968 · Delta · 1h 45m · 89% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 14m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip5h 26mROC 06:05 to DTW 11:31, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.