tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 84%

  1. 06:05 ROC → 07:32 PHL
    AA 5930 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 27m · 91% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 50m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 11:22 PHL → 12:32 MDW
    WN 3224 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 88% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Rochester). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 140 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 50m layover.
Arrives on time84%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip7h 27mROC 06:05 to MDW 12:32, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.