tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Knoxville → Detroit via Philadelphia: arrives on time 37%

  1. 13:38 TYS → 15:39 PHL
    AA 5951 · American, flown by Piedmont · 2h 02m · 66% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:39 PHL → 18:38 DTW
    AA 5167 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 59m · 64% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 00mTYS 13:38 to DTW 18:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.