tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Richmond → Orlando via Philadelphia: arrives on time 60%

  1. 06:26 RIC → 07:40 PHL
    AA 5973 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 14m · 86% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:27 PHL → 11:12 MCO
    AA 2101 · American · 2h 45m · 87% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip4h 46mRIC 06:26 to MCO 11:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.