tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 63%

  1. 10:32 MHT → 12:09 PHL
    AA 5976 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 37m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 36m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:45 PHL → 17:29 ORD
    AA 470 · American · 2h 44m · 64% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Manchester). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 171 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 36m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 57mMHT 10:32 to ORD 17:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.