tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Dulles via Philadelphia: arrives on time 79%

  1. 10:32 MHT → 12:09 PHL
    AA 5976 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 37m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 01m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 15:10 PHL → 16:18 IAD
    UA 3593 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 08m · 86% on time, 5.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 91 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 01m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (5.4% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip5h 46mMHT 10:32 to IAD 16:18, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.