tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Columbia → Dulles via Charlotte: arrives on time 20%

  1. 20:30 CAE → 21:46 CLT
    AA 6043 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 16m · 54% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 CLT → 00:10 IAD +1 day
    AA 1242 · American · 1h 25m · 41% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 3h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip3h 40mCAE 20:30 to IAD 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.