tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Detroit via Philadelphia: arrives on time 45%

  1. 19:40 ROC → 21:09 PHL
    AA 6108 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 29m · 69% on time, 7.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:04 PHL → 23:59 DTW
    AA 5169 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 55m · 80% on time, 10.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (7.8% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (10.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 19mROC 19:40 to DTW 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.