tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Los Angeles via Philadelphia: arrives on time 36%

  1. 19:40 BUF → 21:10 PHL
    AA 6114 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 30m · 71% on time, 12.7% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 PHL → 00:50 LAX +1 day
    AA 738 · American · 5h 45m · 62% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (12.7% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip8h 10mBUF 19:40 to LAX 00:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.