tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Detroit via Philadelphia: arrives on time 42%

  1. 19:40 BUF → 21:10 PHL
    AA 6114 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 30m · 71% on time, 12.7% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:04 PHL → 23:59 DTW
    AA 5169 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 55m · 80% on time, 10.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (12.7% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (10.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 19mBUF 19:40 to DTW 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.