tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → San Francisco via Portland: arrives on time 41%

  1. 16:04 BZN → 16:50 PDX
    AS 2021 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 46m · 84% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 PDX → 19:30 SFO
    AS 504 · Alaska · 1h 54m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 26mBZN 16:04 to SFO 19:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.