tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Seattle via San Diego: arrives on time 34%

  1. 15:13 PHX → 16:35 SAN
    AS 2028 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 22m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 SAN → 20:35 SEA
    AS 417 · Alaska · 3h 00m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 22mPHX 15:13 to SEA 20:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.