tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Sacramento via San Diego: arrives on time 38%

  1. 18:42 SFO → 20:21 SAN
    AS 2058 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 39m · 32% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 26m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:47 SAN → 23:32 SMF
    AS 1621 · Alaska · 1h 45m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 41 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 26m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 50mSFO 18:42 to SMF 23:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.