tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → New York via San Francisco: arrives on time 56%

  1. 17:51 BZN → 19:25 SFO
    AS 2063 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 34m · 18% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 05m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 SFO → 06:20 JFK +1 day
    AS 211 · Alaska · 5h 50m · 92% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 10h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 80 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 05m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip10h 29mBZN 17:51 to JFK 06:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.