tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → Seattle via San Francisco: arrives on time 13%

  1. 17:51 BZN → 19:25 SFO
    AS 2063 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 34m · 18% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:28 SFO → 22:41 SEA
    AS 591 · Alaska · 2h 13m · 72% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection20%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 80% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (20%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 50mBZN 17:51 to SEA 22:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.