tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Redmond → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 40%

  1. 09:44 RDM → 10:57 SEA
    AS 2076 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 13m · 71% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:50 SEA → 14:57 PHX
    AS 1371 · Alaska · 3h 07m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 13mRDM 09:44 to PHX 14:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.