tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Santa Barbara via San Diego: arrives on time 33%

  1. 10:13 SMF → 11:50 SAN
    AS 2101 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 37m · 57% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:49 SAN → 14:02 SBA
    AS 2177 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 13m · 63% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 3h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip3h 49mSMF 10:13 to SBA 14:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.