tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 44%

  1. 08:19 PDX → 09:14 SEA
    AS 2108 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 55m · 92% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:01 SEA → 12:01 SMF
    AS 1380 · Alaska · 2h 00m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip3h 42mPDX 08:19 to SMF 12:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.