tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Everett → Santa Ana via San Francisco: arrives on time 68%

  1. 11:05 PAE → 13:16 SFO
    AS 2139 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 11m · 50% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 4h 52m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:08 SFO → 19:47 SNA
    AS 3492 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 39m · 71% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 247 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 52m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip8h 42mPAE 11:05 to SNA 19:47, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.