tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Everett → Santa Ana via San Francisco: arrives on time 80%

  1. 11:05 PAE → 13:16 SFO
    AS 2139 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 11m · 50% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 32m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:48 SFO → 17:26 SNA
    AS 3494 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 38m · 85% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 107 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 32m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 21mPAE 11:05 to SNA 17:26, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.