tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Everett → Phoenix via San Francisco: arrives on time 69%

  1. 11:05 PAE → 13:16 SFO
    AS 2139 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 11m · 50% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 09m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 16:25 SFO → 18:39 PHX
    UA 574 · United · 2h 14m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 99 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 09m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 34mPAE 11:05 to PHX 18:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.