tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 10:26 BZN → 11:23 SEA
    AS 2141 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 57m · 86% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 39m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:02 SEA → 22:29 JFK
    AS 16 · Alaska · 5h 27m · 63% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 10h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 114 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 39m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip10h 03mBZN 10:26 to JFK 22:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.