tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 66%

  1. 10:26 BZN → 11:23 SEA
    AS 2141 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 57m · 86% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 57m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:20 SEA → 15:31 SFO
    AS 680 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 69% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 72 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 57m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 05mBZN 10:26 to SFO 15:31, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.