tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 79%

  1. 10:26 BZN → 11:23 SEA
    AS 2141 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 57m · 86% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 21m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:44 SEA → 16:45 PHX
    AS 700 · Alaska · 3h 01m · 81% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 96 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 21m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip7h 19mBZN 10:26 to PHX 16:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.