tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Barbara → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 59%

  1. 10:51 SBA → 13:26 SEA
    AS 2143 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 35m · 82% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:16 SEA → 16:11 SMF
    AS 681 · Alaska · 1h 55m · 84% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip5h 20mSBA 10:51 to SMF 16:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.