tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Barbara → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 78%

  1. 10:51 SBA → 13:26 SEA
    AS 2143 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 35m · 82% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 49m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 17:15 SEA → 23:22 ORD
    UA 1503 · United · 4h 07m · 81% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 10h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 139 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 49m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip10h 31mSBA 10:51 to ORD 23:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.