tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Barbara → San Francisco via Portland: arrives on time 49%

  1. 07:34 SBA → 09:45 PDX
    AS 2178 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 11m · 92% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:42 PDX → 12:39 SFO
    AS 1445 · Alaska · 1h 57m · 55% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip5h 05mSBA 07:34 to SFO 12:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.