tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Santa Rosa via Portland: arrives on time 72%

  1. 12:05 SEA → 13:06 PDX
    AS 2181 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 01m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 24m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:30 PDX → 16:15 STS
    AS 3483 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 45m · 80% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 24m layover.
Arrives on time72%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 10mSEA 12:05 to STS 16:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.