tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Phoenix via Portland: arrives on time 47%

  1. 12:03 SJC → 13:48 PDX
    AS 2188 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 45m · 67% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:45 PDX → 17:29 PHX
    AS 731 · Alaska · 2h 44m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 26mSJC 12:03 to PHX 17:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.