tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → San Jose via Seattle: arrives on time 35%

  1. 13:48 PDX → 14:43 SEA
    AS 2205 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 55m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:42 SEA → 17:53 SJC
    AS 319 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 51% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip4h 05mPDX 13:48 to SJC 17:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.