tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Bozeman via Seattle: arrives on time 34%

  1. 13:48 PDX → 14:43 SEA
    AS 2205 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 55m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:35 SEA → 18:18 BZN
    AS 3498 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 43m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip3h 30mPDX 13:48 to BZN 18:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.